As of February 3rd 2011, the central pool of available IPv4 addresses managed by the Internet Assigned Numbers Authority (IANA) has been depleted.
The five Regional Internet Registries (AfriNIC, APNIC, ARIN, LACNIC and the RIPE NCC) still have addresses. They will continue to allocate IPv4 addresses to their members in accordance with their community-based regional policies until their pools of available IPv4 addresses are depleted. It is difficult to predict when the Regional Registries will run out of IPv4 addresses.
At current rates, this pipeline is expected to last between sixteen and twelve additional months.
What will happen next is anyone’s guess. Here are some ideas:
- Some organizations with large pools of addresses will return some of them either to save face by not being accused of hoarding a scarce resource (in particular for governments, the US DoD has eleven blocks of 16 million addresses, way more than they need) and to gain some good publicity (some companies such as HP, Apple, Ford, Halliburton, Nortel, PARC and Daimler have large blocks of unused addresses that serve them no useful purpose). This has already started happening, it will likely happen a few more times in the near future (at least, while selling such ranges is not possible).
- Companies internally using public IP addresses will make the change to use private addresses and will end up having a big surplus as a result. Some will adopt IPv6 internally, but IPv4 private addresses are easier to deploy in most situations, and quite abundant.
- Companies with under allocated ranges will reshuffle IPs around and end up with unused blocks.
- Currently, selling IP addresses is not officially allowed, but when we really run out some policies might be modified to allow the sale of unused ranges to promote more efficient usage. Even if that doesn’t happen, a black market is almost certain to develop. I’m sure someone will come up with an eBay for IP addresses and will become rich brokering black/grey market IP address ranges.
If you don’t have plans for handling this you should create them. My plan is to continue to use the 10.0.0.0 range of IPv4 addresses on my network because I use a NAT. So whenever my ISP changes to IPv6 all I need to do is update my router. Microsoft IT has already started the change to IPv6 a while ago. I think we have a 2 to 3 years before the big push to move to IPv6 comes. This will happen when acquiring IPv4 addresses becomes more expensive than the cost of deploying and testing IPv6 addresses. That is when companies will stop using IPv4.
For more information see the ARIN IPv4 Depletion and IPv6 Deployment FAQ
For information on IPv6 see: http://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/network/bb530961.aspx
For information on setting up IPv6 see this:
Architecting a Rollout of IPV6 for Improved Security and Computer Management
http://www.microsoft.com/events/podcasts/default.aspx?audience=Audience-b046181f-3333-4c19-977e-c230ed48d9c0&seriesID=Series-c659d104-8537-410f-9223-fcc930abb4a4.xml&pageId=x8637&source=Microsoft-Podcasts-about-Microsoft-IT-Showcase:-How-Microsoft-Does-IT-for-IT-Professionals&WT.rss_ev=a



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